Due to the increased expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the death of the Iranian president in a plane crash, gold prices temporarily surged to a historic high near the 2450 mark. 

 However, hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials led to a rebound in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold prices, which partially retraced their gains.  

With the political uncertainty in two major oil-producing countries and continuous updates in global economic data, the market showed a series of dynamic changes before trading hours, causing both WTI and Brent crude oil prices to fall on the first trading day of the week. 

Gold >> 

On Monday, due to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and the death of the Iranian president in a plane crash, gold prices briefly surged to a historic high near the 2450 mark.  

However, hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials led to a rebound in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold prices, which partially retraced their gains.  

Spot gold opened higher, surged to the 2450 mark during the session, hitting a new record high, and ultimately closed up 0.48% at USD 2426.36 per ounce. 

Data from last week indicated signs of cooling inflation, leading traders to estimate a 66% chance of a US rate cut in September. However, as Federal Reserve officials continued to make hawkish remarks, the probability of a September rate cut decreased to around 60%.  

On Monday, the US dollar index rebounded by 0.12%, and US Treasury yields rose for the third consecutive day, causing gold prices to retreat from their historical highs.  

This week’s trading days will feature speeches from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr, which investors should closely monitor. Additionally, attention should be paid to developments in the Middle East. 

Yesterday, on the technical front, gold prices accelerated higher during the Asian and European sessions, piercing the 2449 mark before facing resistance and pulling back in a downward trend.  

In the evening, the US session saw a further accelerated decline, breaking below the morning’s starting point of 2416 and continuing down to around 2407 before rebounding and closing in a volatile manner. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2440-2445. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2410-2405. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

On Monday, due to political uncertainty in two major oil-producing countries and ongoing updates in global economic data, the market displayed a series of dynamic changes before trading hours, leading to a decline in both WTI and Brent crude oil prices on the first trading day of the week.  

WTI crude oil touched the 80 mark during the session before retreating, ultimately closing down 0.4% at USD 79.14 per barrel, while Brent crude closed down 0.31% at USD 83.64 per barrel. The news of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s tragic death shocked the world, raising concerns about further tensions in the Middle East.  

Although Asian oil prices were relatively stable on Monday, this event could lead to increased demand for safe-haven assets. The market is closely watching policy speeches, meeting minutes, and upcoming economic data releases. 

Yesterday, on the technical front, oil prices experienced wide-ranging fluctuations amid volatile trading. During the Asian and European sessions, prices slightly declined, further dropping below the 79 mark in the afternoon to around 78.7 before stabilizing and rebounding.  

In the evening, during the US session, prices surged again, piercing the 80 mark before facing resistance and closing with fluctuations. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 80.5-81.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 78.0-77.5. 

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