Market Recap
On Tuesday, gold soared past the $3,600 mark, setting a new all-time high of $3,646.23 per ounce before settling at $3,635.58, up about 1.35%. Meanwhile, crude oil prices posted modest gains as OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production increase for October, while potential new sanctions on Russia fueled concerns over supply tightness.
Gold
Gold broke decisively above the $3,600 level on Tuesday, hitting an intraday record high of $3,646.23 per ounce and closing at $3,635.58—up 1.35% for the day.
The rally was supported by several key factors: weakening signals from the US labor market, growing expectations for a Fed rate cut, continued central bank gold purchases, and correlations with the US dollar and bond markets.
Friday’s US jobs report disappointed sharply, showing only 22,000 jobs added in August—well below the 75,000 forecast. June data was also revised down to a loss of 13,000 jobs. This dismal report ignited market speculation for a possible 50-basis-point rate cut.
According to CME FedWatch, traders now assign an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the September meeting and a 12% chance of a larger 50-basis-point cut.
Gold – Technical Outlook
On Monday, gold found support near $3,580 during the Asian session before staging a strong bullish rally. Momentum accelerated through the European session, pushing prices into a powerful one-way surge that pierced $3,646 before closing near the highs. The daily candlestick printed a strong bullish bar, signaling firm upward momentum.
Gold – Key Levels to Watch
- Upside Resistance: $3,665
- Downside Support: $3,630–$3,635
- Maintain a “buy-on-dips” approach.
Crude Oil
Oil prices inched higher after OPEC+ announced a smaller production increase than markets had anticipated for October. Additional concerns arose over potential new sanctions on Russia, adding to supply uncertainty.
OPEC+ stated that October output will rise by only 137,000 barrels per day, compared with 555,000 barrels in August and September and 411,000 barrels in June and July. This smaller increase surprised markets and provided key support for prices.
Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ, noted: “This move suggests that the previously agreed cuts—set to last until the end of 2026—are being gradually reversed, indicating a faster return of idle capacity.”
Crude Oil – Technical Outlook
Yesterday, oil prices briefly rebounded during Asian and European trading, testing $63.3 before facing resistance and turning lower. The US session saw further weakness, with prices dropping below $62 before settling into a range. The daily candlestick closed as a small bearish bar under pressure from $63 resistance, maintaining a short-term bearish bias.
Crude Oil – Key Levels to Watch
- Upside Resistance: $62.6
- Downside Support: $62.1–$62.3
- Continue following the prevailing trend with a bearish bias.
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